Monday, August 25, 2008

Will it be Dhum(aal) in HP?

Tough fight in HP, but BJP may hold incumbency advantage
The election scene in Gujarat has indeed reached the boiling point. The Congress leader Sonia Gandhi is openly advocating the “merchants of death” theory to show the true colours of Chief Minister Narendra Modi. Modi on the other hand, is relentlessly pursuing his agenda to ensure that his Hindu vote bank backs him to the hilt in the ensuing elections to the state assembly. The Elections Commission has asked both the parties to explain their conduct during the election meetings.

With the state deeply polarised on communal lines, such mudslinging was perhaps on expected lines. But the question is, why has Modi shifted gears and is now using the communal card to ensure victory? Has the development plank which the BJP had been touting as its trump card lost sheen? The mood in the state and the dissensions within the BJP rank & file, clearly indicate that it is not a cake-walk for Modi this time. Senior journalists and analysts, who have been extensively touring the state, feel that Modi may win anything between 85-100 seats. This certainly puts him in a precarious position is-à-vis the dissidents in the party, because anything short of a comfortable majority will lead the detractors in the party to gun for Modi’s ouster.

Congress, on the other hand is hoping to use the anti-incumbency factor & and the communal track record of the Modi administration to come back to power in Gujarat. From Sonia to Rahul, most of the Congress bigwigs have pitched their tents in Gujarat to snatch victory from the jaws of a possible defeat. But will that be enough? The betting is still on.

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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