Wednesday, June 11, 2008

The long & short of it

So that was about the year bygone, what’s in store for the coming year. Coming back to the point of a possible turn in business cycle; what are the challenges that await India Inc. and what’s in store for individual investors in the coming financial year, considering that all hell has already broken lose, from inflation to rupee appreciation, dwindling stock markets to a slowdown in lending. While there a few sectors that have underperformed, there are some which have scored well. Sectors such as cement, banking and real estate, which have trailed Sensex in the past few months offer a good investment option for three to six months. All the sectors mentioned above are fundamentally strong, but have suffered because of inflation. Once price concern eases, which most analysts feel will happen soon; these are the sectors which will rally the most. The current valuations of banking, cement and real estate is significantly lower and are an attractive buy at the current moment. According to Shubhada Rao, Chief Economist, Yes Bank, “Higher inflation, inflationary expectations and elevated levels of monetary parameters prompted the RBI to tighten. Going forward, we believe that interest rates are likely to stabilise in Q1-FY08. With inflation expected to tread lower towards mid-May, pressure to tighten interest rates is likely to alleviate.” So banking could yet be a prize pick for the individual investors. Rajesh Agarwal of CD Equi search is of the view that one should also continue holding the cement counters. “I see the valuations to be attractive on the whole pack, lot of cement counters have corrected almost 50%. The companies came with good set of numbers, and with the kind of construction and real-estate boom we are witnessing in India, I don’t find any problem with the industry as such.” As the Sensex is slowly and steadily moving back towards initial highs, there are quite a few scrips that are still low at valuation. Go long on these sectors (stocks) in the shortest possible time and keep the show going!

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative