Monday, September 03, 2012

FACEBOOK: FUTURE QUESTIONED

While the world debates over when Facebook will go public and what its worth would be, Mark Zuckerberg is worried about a decision he has to make – sell-off his 24% stake & bid adieu to Facebook or alter the very business model by diversifying. What should he choose? by Steven P. Warner

So will Facebook become a meteoric fad? Louis says it already is: “Facebook is already a fad. I don’t think it is going to grow out of that. It lacks credibility.” Pessimism apart, the giant’s credit notes being reduced to scribbled sheets appear quite a possibility. And the mass market has proven to be a fickle group; Facebook cannot overlook this historical truth. Speaking to B&E from San Mateo in California, Jeremiah Owyang, Partner, Altimeter Group says, “Facebook is at risk. Other social networks became complacent, got sold to larger media entities, or failed to invigorate their talent tools and suffered as a result.”

Debate is also on that Facebook could become larger than Google. Speaking to B&E from Chicago, Andrew Lipsman, Senior Director of research agency comScore Inc., sounds optimistic. He says, “Facebook can eventually becoming the largest web property in the world (currently it is #4). But this would still take a few years. To get there, it would need to get traction in some of the larger Internet markets where it still has a limited presence, such as Japan, S. Korea, Russia & Brazil.” But Sturm doubts it. Says he, “It is unlikely that Facebook will become bigger than Google. It is riding the wave of popular infatuation. Things can go wrong for Facebook. What if some hacker found a way to compromise its security? There are many possibilities!” Facebook also has to move away from relying only on online ads. While Facebook is growing, so is Google. Not content with being the dominant search engine, Google continues to attempt to mean more things to more people. Its latest innovation is Google RealTime. In short, cautious, but deliberate diversification will benefit Facebook, as Owyang of Altimeter says, “Facebook will need two strategies to maintain leadership: Innovate & integrate features at all consumer touchpoints, so it’s no longer just a destination strategy.” This typically implies that Facebook has to look beyond social-networking communities.

The opportunities? First comes “analytics”. Zuckerberg has to better realise the power of 500 million samples across 100+ countries. Facebook can serve research agencies and surveyors who are looking at demographic, psychological or other types of market researches. There is presently no clause that disallows “grouped data” to be furnished to third-parties. The situation is thus – Facebook has a mine it can monetise. Strangely, it is not doing so.

Facebook dreams of becoming the new-Google. But it isn’t doing what Google did on day #1 – it has no credible search business (except people), which is what primarily made Google worth $150 billion today, and forced Microsoft to risk a $47 billion bid for an outdated Yahoo! Search capability enhances the value of a web property and multiplies the revenue inflow manifold. How? Google crossed the $10 billion revenue mark when it was seven years old. Facebook is already six and hopes to cross the $1 billion mark only by 2010-end. Facebook is also missing out on the places where netizens spend most of their time – the Inbox. Facebook’s mailing system is outdated, looks rigid & clumpy and is almost impossible to organise. Mails give the most important dimensions to online networking. Most know this; some don’t. Does Zuckerberg?



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