Thursday, October 23, 2008

Most managers want to empower their workers, but reality can get in the way

People who are empowered to take risks & fail more than once aren’t organisational pariahs, but they’re often damaged goods In the television industry, a creative team can produce several pilots between hits, and there’s hardly a peep. But in most other industries, such tolerance is rare indeed. Sure, you hear about companies where teams who have failed at some innovative effort or another get thrown a big party, the message from management being, “We don’t punish our risk-takers – we celebrate them!” But with every additional disappointment in an organisation, the empowerment glow starts to fade, and very few companies continue to empower unsuccessful risk-takers – except, that is, to empower them to look for work elsewhere as soon as possible.

Empowerment is less likely to happen in big companies than small, which is exactly backward from the way it should be MBAs constantly say they plan to opt out of the corporate world because big companies will stifle their ideas, while small ones will “empower” them to make high-impact decisions right away. They’ve got a point. Big companies tend to be risk-averse, while small ones and in particular start-ups – short on resources, formality and time – tend to unleash every brain.

How ironic! Because it would take a mighty large missed bet to bring a multi-billion enterprise to its knees, while one relatively small miscalculated risk can destroy a million-dollar operation. Indeed, that’s why we often say that the worst thing a big company can do is manage its size. It should use it, and the best way we know for a big company to use its size is empower more people to take more swings.

Our sense is that Google is still enjoying the fruits of its innovation, and kudos to the company’s leadership for that. In fact, kudos to every company that truly encourages its people to make tough decisions and take risks – and especially to those companies who are straight with their employees about how empowerment really works.

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

False Prophets

Building bridges between Muslims, Christians, and Jews seems like a worthy goal. But, by glossing over serious differences, the organisations at the forefront of interfaith dialogue confuse discussion with success – and end up leaving everyone at risk. By Geneive Abdo, liaison, un’s alliance of civilisations
Like many international institutions, the United Nations says it seeks to address Muslim extremism. Who else but the collection of states with the broadest mandate, most members, and loftiest goals could tackle this perversion of civilised society and threat to world order? So, when I was hired in January 2006 for a project to devise a United Nations response to the so-called clash of civilisations, it seemed to be a pretty worthy way to consider this challenge on a global scale. At the urging of the prime ministers of Spain and Turkey, the then Secretary-General of United Nations, Kofi Annan established the Alliance of Civilisations with the primary goal of identifying the roots of the divide between Western and Islamic societies and, ultimately, to find ways to curb religious violence.

Part of my job was to travel around the world, collecting the views of leaders of Islamist parties and movements. Their ideas would then be included in a document th--e alliance would publish at the end of that year. The United Nations hoped the document would receive international press coverage and generate funding for the solutions, or at least some “practical steps,” it would propose to bridge the divide between Western and Islamic societies. There seemed to be no better way, I thought, to clarify the Islamist vision – one ignored and rejected by Western governments – for a wide international audience. Based on my own research on Islamic revivalism during a decade in the Middle East, I knew these dozen or so leading activists could shed light on the major causes of extremism, namely, anger and resentment at US foreign policy; beliefs that the September 11 attacks sparked an ideological war between Islam and the West; and the underlying conviction that Islam would cure the ills that a decadent West had imposed on the world.


Almost as soon as the project began, though, a fear of political backlash proved to outweigh any potential for mutual understanding. At a meeting in Qatar with a 20-member committee composed of former ministers, diplomats, and scholars, the question of whether the views of Islamists would be part of the alliance’s work was raised in public discussions. One of Kofi Annan’s special advisors decided that meetings with Islamists would amount to scandal for the United Nations. For me, the reversal was one of a few defining moments in my understanding of the risks the institution was willing to take. More profoundly, it exposed the philosophical divide within the alliance: Was the best way to deal with extremism through a head-on political approach or an indirect cultural one? Is it better to engage directly with Islamists and learn first hand their grievances and convictions, or to create Hollywood films for the Muslim masses in the hopes of changing perceptions of the West and vice versa? In the end, the cultural strategists won out, much to my dismay.

Today, as the Alliance of Civilisations continues its work, it can be added to the rapidly growing list of groups, including non-governmental organisations (NGOs), interfaith projects, the US State Department, polling agencies, self-appointed Muslim-American public intellectuals, religious leaders, and academics, all claiming to be addressing the “problem.” However, as someone who has actively participated in this debate, I believe that the opposite is true. Rather than dealing with extremism, these institutions are deliberately dodging the discomforting work of addressing a global conflict that in hindsight makes the Cold War look like a small ethnic squabble. Although the approaches differ from one organisation to the next, the general strategies bear a great resemblance: emphasise the commonalities between Islamic and Western societies and among the three Abrahamic faiths; downplay or avoid completely the very real differences as if they just do not exist; and make Westerners feel comfortable by convincing them that extremism is a temporary phenomenon that exists only on the fringes of Islamic societies.

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
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'This is one of Big B's best performances'
IIPM to come up at Rajarhat
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Monday, October 20, 2008

Teach a lesson...

...to the masses, you ‘literates’
The oil-rich Middle East and its leading countries seem to be gradually waking up to the realisation that they might finally lose their so-called long term competitive edge in the short term itself. This loss is primarily because of the Middle-East’s thorough incapability in encouraging youths to take up higher education and in boosting their entrepreneurial spirits in the new age era.

Take Saudi Arabia. Critically, though Saudi Arabia has more than 14,000 educational institutions, including seven universities, according to Saudi Arabia’s human development report, 17% adults are still illiterate. But the UN shows how 33% of males and a whopping 56% of females are illiterates in Saudi Arabia. But of horror is the official data that higher education enrolment ratio is a meagre 27.7% of the ‘enrollable’ population.

That means that the nation could well be spawning 70 odd percent of illiterate generations in the coming years. Though King Abdullah decided to invest $2.4 billion (SR 9 billion) for educational development projects to boost science and technology, the industry has quoted that the projects do not meet their requirements. Oil can surely teach nations a lesson in more ways than one.
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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
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'This is one of Big B's best performances'
IIPM to come up at Rajarhat
IIPM awards four Bengali novelists
IIPM makes business education truly global-Education-The Times of ...
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IIPM ranked No.1 B-School in India, Management News - By ...
IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
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The Hindu Business Line : IIPM placements hit a high of over 2000 jobs
Deccan Herald - IIPM ranked as top B-School in India
India eNews - IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
IIPM Delhi - Indian Institute of Planning and Management New Delhi ...domain-b.com : IIPM ranked ahead of IIMs

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Bad drivers? Worse buyers!

B&E’s Savreen Gadhoke argues why manufacturing cars for the fairer sex does not make for a good business plan in India... [and the lady is serious!]

If women are bad drivers, men are worse! But statistically, that sweet correlation – however much I personally might want to the contrary – does not apply to car purchases. And probably, this is the reason why many women, especially in India, are not seen driving cars [Of course metros are an exception; though even in these areas, purchase patterns of women are no relative matches to those of men]. As a matter of fact, there aren’t many cars that are manufactured exclusively for women in India. And if you’re a car manufacturer, about to tempestuously experiment with a plan for the fairer sex, perish the thought Jim, women in India more often than not take the back seat!

Although Henry Ford was (in)famously focused on keeping women in the passenger seat, Ford had in reality started marketing cars for women way back in 1912. But that was the US. Graeme Dawson, Australia’s top market historian, shows how way back in 1968, women for the first time outnumbered men amongst new applicants for Victorian drivers’ licenses. But that was Australia. A 2006 Chinese survey showed how “Chinese women car buyers have grown to a record 32% of the total buyers,” with the top ten models being bought by them being “Chery QQ, Honda Fit, Nissan Tiida, Chevrolet Spark, VW Polo, Suzuki Swift, Chevrolet Sail, Peugeot 206, Audi A4, FAW Vizi (the redesigned model of Toyota Yaris).” But then, that’s China! Despite driving by woman being banned in Saudi Arabia, government owned Saudi Aramco’s last year’s research shows how “car ownership among Saudi women climbed to 60 percent between 2003 and 2006!” You got it! That’s Saudi Arabia!

In India, still, experts comment and research agencies like HighBeam concur that at the lower level, women make up 10% of the total sales of even top mass market brands. Though India comprises a 200 million strong middle class, for whom a car is even now more of a luxury, which is bought after great discussions and compromises and generally driven by the man of the house, introducing a car exclusively for a woman belonging to this segment of society is just not a viable proposition.

Vivek Srivastava, Joint MD, Innocean Worldwide states, “Specific models being offered to the female buyers as a practice or an approach to market segmentation is not a wide-spread practice.” However, by mapping the needs of the middle class, manufacturers have launched 2-wheelers like Hero Honda Pleasure, TVS Scooty Pep, Kinetic Flyte, et al, which have been received well by females from this strata of the society and have performed well in tier-2 & tier-3 cities, mainly because of poor conditions of the public transport & low cost of ownership. Harshul Verma, Automobile Analyst, Khandwala Securities asserts, “Females generally prefer compact cars over bulky vehicles.” Would that make Tata’s Nano more a woman’s car than the people’s car? Comparing with the western world, in USA & UK, bulky vehicles like Volvo S40, Mazda 3 & Volkswagen Jetta are the first preferences of female drivers.

Indian automobile manufacturers are just not ready to take the risk of launching cars targeted exclusively at women. The foremost reason for this is that they do not wish to restrict their target audience. And as the well publicised Experian August 2008 research shows, men are better and more regular ‘re-buyers’ and repeat customers than women. Well, though my lady-like composure permits not, I have to accept, women are worse when it comes to the market place!

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
IIPM Campus

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'This is one of Big B's best performances'
IIPM to come up at Rajarhat
IIPM awards four Bengali novelists
IIPM makes business education truly global-Education-The Times of ...
The Hindu : Education Plus : Honour for IIPM
IIPM ranked No.1 B-School in India, Management News - By ...
IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
Moneycontrol >> News >> Press- News >> IIPM ranked No1 B-School in ...
IIPM ranked No. 1 B-school in India- Zee Business Survey ...
IIPM ranked No1 B-School in India :: Education, Careers ...
The Hindu Business Line : IIPM placements hit a high of over 2000 jobs
Deccan Herald - IIPM ranked as top B-School in India
India eNews - IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
IIPM Delhi - Indian Institute of Planning and Management New Delhi ...
domain-b.com : IIPM ranked ahead of IIMs

Friday, October 17, 2008

Search for alternative fuels

Strangely, in their search for alternative fuels, auto manufacturers are not giving due importance to the most important of quasi-alternative fuels, that is, compressed natural gas (CNG), which, in fact, is a fossil fuel only! CNG is environmentally a cleaner alternative to traditional petroleum products, with fuel efficiency equaling that provided by diesel engines. But why should the CNG focus be increased dramatically? Because countries like India, where the auto markets are expected to have the hugest potential, have extremely large and cheap CNG resources. A report by the Global Environment Facility of UNDP on India’s Coal Bed Methane (CBM) extraction potential states, “It is estimated that in India, the largest coal producer in the world, there are around 20,000 square kilometers of area where CBM capture could be carried out; the country’s recoverable methane reserves are 800 billion cubic metres, with a gas production potential of 105 million cubic metres a day over 20 years.” Compare this with Saudi Arabia’s daily production of oil, which stands at only (relatively) 9.5 million barrels a day. Makes sense? Not perhaps to the global auto industry.

The no-brainer auto issue #4

That’s the one to do with oil. The fact is, despite all doomsday predictions of major global auto firms betting on alternative fuel, oil reserves don’t seem to be ever running out in the near future, and that means for the next hundred years at least. Look at OPEC’s latest reports, which estimate that between the years 1995-2003, because of newer extraction techniques, new discoveries had actually improved recoveries by almost 138 billion barrels. By 2020, oil production will cross a smashing 1,600 billion barrels annually with reserves close to 3,400 billion barrels! Compare this with the figure of, say, 24 billion barrels annually that the world was producing in 2003. Do the figures rip away sensibilities of any prophesy that the world will run out of oil? Straightforward no-brainer logic clearly shows why auto companies should simply focus on creating cars that simply give more miles per gallon as oil would never run out or be in limited supply even in the distant future! But stupid is what stupid gets. And auto companies need hype and glory before death and immortality!

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
IIPM Campus

Top Articles on IIPM:-
'This is one of Big B's best performances'
IIPM to come up at Rajarhat
IIPM awards four Bengali novelists
IIPM makes business education truly global-Education-The Times of ...
The Hindu : Education Plus : Honour for IIPM
IIPM ranked No.1 B-School in India, Management News - By ...
IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
Moneycontrol >> News >> Press- News >> IIPM ranked No1 B-School in ...
IIPM ranked No. 1 B-school in India- Zee Business Survey ...
IIPM ranked No1 B-School in India :: Education, Careers ...
The Hindu Business Line : IIPM placements hit a high of over 2000 jobs
Deccan Herald - IIPM ranked as top B-School in India
India eNews - IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
IIPM Delhi - Indian Institute of Planning and Management New Delhi ...
domain-b.com : IIPM ranked ahead of IIMs

Thursday, October 16, 2008

With the variety on offer, customers have little to worry about issues like inflation

How can one let go off the “must-have” of the FMCG industry – advertising? As compared to 2007, the FMCG sector increased its advertising and marketing spends significantly. For instance, HUL increased its spending by almost 30%, and Britannia Industries Ltd. went up by 26.82%. N. V. Sivakumar, ED, Consumer & Industrial Products & Services, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) India says, “FMCG majors have been embarking upon increased print and TV campaigns in an effort to differentiate products, create brand awareness and increase brand recall.” Companies like Godrej are in fact doing it to the point of compromising on bottom lines in the near term. The most interesting case recently is that of GCPL, which increased its advertising spends by 44.65% on a y-o-y basis (it roped in Hrithik Roshan as brand ambassador for Cinthol), even as it recorded a y-o-y fall of 4.21% in net PAT for quarter-ended June 2008.

So they tackled the inflation devil well. Hats off to that! But that is only the most current one to face them. Actually, there are quite a few larger, more daunting challenges facing the FMCG industry today. One of the main issues faced by them currently is manpower – finding and retaining the right talent. A spate of restructuring initiatives in this sector are worrying analysts. A recent case in point was the massive restructuring exercise at HUL in February 2008, where the company combined its food and personal care divisions. Speculation is the that workforce could be rationalised, which the company has denied. Vivek Patil, FMCG Analyst, Khandwala Securities affirms that the FMCG sector faces a serious talent crunch problem and avers, “Sectors, which have better margins like IT and infrastructure have less restructuring as compared to the FMCG sector.” He goes on to add that in a regular economy, the growth in various sectors is equal, but that is not the case in India. Due to this, FMCG companies are also finding it difficult to attract top managerial talent. They are no longer the recruiters of choice when it comes to the top B-schools of the country.

Players are also facing the critical decision of whether to take the plunge into integrative growth – both backward as well as forward. At this stage, backward integration for FMCG players is vital because manufacturers of oil and food ingredients, besides competing with other manufacturers, have also been dealing with commoditised products & have hitherto lived on thin margins. States C. Ravishankar, Manager, Strategic & Commercial Intelligence, Transaction Services, KPMG, “Existing intermediaries add significant cost and are not able to maintain high quality standards.” Therefore, there arises an incentive for FMCG companies to integrate backwards. That’s difficult, however, due to the extremely fragmented and disorganised nature of the food supply chain in India.

As for forward integration, margins are traditionally dictated by marketers, again due to high degrees of fragmentation and low bargaining power of the retailers. But this trend seems to be changing now. In June 2008, it was clearly visible when Kishore Biyani-owned Big Bazaar, refused to stock Cadbury’s chocolates simply because Cadbury’s was giving a better deal to other international retailers. They did the same with PepsiCo’s Lays chips as it was not satisfied with the terms of the contract. However, retail is a different ball game, and competencies needed aren’t easy for an FMCG firm to build. Ravishankar adds, “Past evidence would have us believe that forward integration by FMCG majors is unlikely, or at least unlikely to succeed on a meaningful scale.”

The rise of organised retail is a double edged sword, actually. Adi Godrej, CMD, GCPL told B&E, “Organised retail is a very big thing in India and in the coming years we are going to focus on it. I think FMCG is driving the growth of organised retail...” Given the speed with which retail is growing in India, FMCG players are benefiting as they get a platform to push their products and reach out to consumers in semi-urban and rural areas as well.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
IIPM Campus

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'This is one of Big B's best performances'
IIPM to come up at Rajarhat
IIPM awards four Bengali novelists
IIPM makes business education truly global-Education-The Times of ...
The Hindu : Education Plus : Honour for IIPM
IIPM ranked No.1 B-School in India, Management News - By ...
IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
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The Hindu Business Line : IIPM placements hit a high of over 2000 jobs
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IIPM Delhi - Indian Institute of Planning and Management New Delhi ...
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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Grilling times ahead

Olmert's exit complicates Israel's political scenario
There are two pictures of outgoing Israeli PM, Ehud Olmert, which are imprinted on the minds of every politically active Israeli. The first was a poster displaying the faces of two Israeli soldiers, captured by Hezbollah fighters during the Israel’s disastrous campaign of Lebanon in 2006; with Olmert proclaiming, “Thy children shall come again to their own border” in somewhat prophetic gesture. The second is a front page photo on Jerusalem Post with a visibly ashen Olmert puffing a cigar after the first round of interrogations related to graft charges. In a way, these pictures sum up his turbulent career too. Therefore, in the last few months, the incidence of an abortive end to his career was not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’. Noted political expert from Israel, Gideon Doron told B&E, “For him, it was getting difficult to dispense his duties. Even if the graft charges are baseless, he’ll have to fight it out till eternity. You simply can't rule after you lose your base of legitimacy.”

A shameful defeat by Hezbollah coupled with a tactical loss in Gaza have not only hurt Olmert's image but that of his Centrist Kadima Party too, which was started by Ariel Sharon as a rag-tag group of leftists and rightists. The then defence minister and the chief of staff had to make an unceremonious exit. But Olmert managed to hang on a bit longer; in the process further denting the party's image. Who leads the party next is the key question now. Tzipi Livni, the dovish Foreign Minister, presently leads the race but she is closely followed by Shaul Mofaz—a hawkish Sephardic migrant Jew from Iran. However, all the polls pitting them against Benjamin Netanyahu, the Likud leader, show them trailing miserably. On the other hand, the Arabs are feeling the jitters from this scenario. As an Arab analyst puts it; with Shaul Mofaz there is a good chance for war, but with Tzipi, there isn't much chance of development in either direction; i.e. war or peace. Either way, there is nothing much for them to look forward to!

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
IIPM Campus

Top Articles on IIPM:-
'This is one of Big B's best performances'
IIPM to come up at Rajarhat
IIPM awards four Bengali novelists
IIPM makes business education truly global-Education-The Times of ...
The Hindu : Education Plus : Honour for IIPM
IIPM ranked No.1 B-School in India, Management News - By ...
IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
Moneycontrol >> News >> Press- News >> IIPM ranked No1 B-School in ...
IIPM ranked No. 1 B-school in India- Zee Business Survey ...
IIPM ranked No1 B-School in India :: Education, Careers ...
The Hindu Business Line : IIPM placements hit a high of over 2000 jobs
Deccan Herald - IIPM ranked as top B-School in India
India eNews - IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
IIPM Delhi - Indian Institute of Planning and Management New Delhi ...domain-b.com : IIPM ranked ahead of IIMs

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Pill-ion riders

Pharma lobby in Pakistan dunks
“Why don’t Pakistanis ever get a headache? Because Disprin, the top selling Indian drug, is banned in that country!” Uh, alright, that was a bad joke. But seriously, recently Pakistan banned a proposal for importing 400 medicine brands from India as Indian drugs are 10 times cheaper than those manufactured in Pakistan by the same MNCs. Local entrepreneurs assert that the suggested imports would threaten the employments of over one million people, spoil annual exports worth more than $120 million and compromise the availability of medicines during emergencies.

But almost all the above reasons [save the employment spin] seem more confabulated than Zorro’s mask. After G. K. Pillai, Indian Commerce Secretary (left, above) met S. A. Shah, Pakistan Commerce Secretary, last year, the true reasons became clear. The pharma industry in Pakistan (worth Indian Rs. 83 billion) involves the business interests of major political parties of the country; subsequently, the big pharma players have the ability to apply extensive pressure on the national political and economic scenario. So should India ban Pakistani medicines in return? Pakistani medicines?!? What’s a Pakistani medicine?!?!

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
IIPM Campus

Top Articles on IIPM:-
'This is one of Big B's best performances'
IIPM to come up at Rajarhat
IIPM awards four Bengali novelists
IIPM makes business education truly global-Education-The Times of ...
The Hindu : Education Plus : Honour for IIPM
IIPM ranked No.1 B-School in India, Management News - By ...
IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
Moneycontrol >> News >> Press- News >> IIPM ranked No1 B-School in ...
IIPM ranked No. 1 B-school in India- Zee Business Survey ...
IIPM ranked No1 B-School in India :: Education, Careers ...
The Hindu Business Line : IIPM placements hit a high of over 2000 jobs
Deccan Herald - IIPM ranked as top B-School in India
India eNews - IIPM Ranked No1 B-School in India
IIPM Delhi - Indian Institute of Planning and Management New Delhi ...
domain-b.com : IIPM ranked ahead of IIMs

Monday, October 13, 2008

Why do stock markets rally on bad news?

The US stock market has held up well so far and will continue do so in 2008 As a result of the belief that the “worst is behind us”, and for other reasons I shall explain below, market participants have remained, while not exuberantly bullish, so at least complacent and optimistic about an economic and corporate profit recovery in the second half of the year and in 2009. According to a recent survey by Barron’s, institutional investors are heavily leaning toward the positive side. 50% of the respondents were either “very bullish” (7%) or “bullish” (43%) about the US stock market whereas only 12% of respondents were “bearish” (nobody was “very bearish”).

There were another two interesting aspects regarding the “Spring 2008 Big Money Poll Results.” Institutional investors tended to be positive about equities (87% of respondents indicated they would be buyers of equities in the next three to six months), very positive about the US dollar and “very bearish” about US Treasuries, and “bearish” about real estate, gold, and oil. Moreover, institutional investors’ favourite industries over the next six to 12 months were “Financial” and “Technology”.

To some extend I can understand why US institutions are positive about US equities and the dollar, and bearish about treasuries. Because of the US dollar’s steep decline since 2001 US equities are in Euro terms still 50% below the peak in 1999 (in Euro terms). So, in Euro terms, US equities are relatively inexpensive. In addition, because US equities sold off less than foreign markets since October 2007 they have begun to out-perform foreign markets.

Then, as Walter Bagehot (who edited the Economist for 17 years) already remarked in the 19th century, “John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand 2%.” So, I have some sympathy with the positive stance of institutional investors. However, I find it difficult to reconcile financial institutions very negative stance toward Treasuries (only 3.6% of respondents were bullish versus 62.2% who were bearish) and at the same time their positive stance toward the economy and equities. The reason I think there is an inconsistency here is that if interest rates increase (Treasuries decline in value) the highly leveraged consumer and with him the entire economy are unlikely to recover.

Aside from artificially low interest rates on US short dated Treasuries, excessive optimism regarding an economic and profit recovery in the second half of 2008 and in 2009, and dollar weakness, there are two more reasons why US equities have held up well in face of deteriorating economic news. “Extraordinary monetary measures” by the Fed, which drove real short-term interest rates into negative territory, have propelled commodity prices higher (especially energy and agricultural commodities) and boosted the shares of energy, industrial and material stocks, which make up 14%, 12% and 4% of the S&P weight respectively, far above their previous highs in 2007.

In addition, since households have to spend an increasing portion of their income on non-discretionary items (which include necessities such as food and energy), consumer staple companies, which make up 11% of the S&P 500, have also been strong.

Considering all the above mentioned factors, I hope our readers will understand why US stocks have held up so well – at least so far.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
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IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
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Saturday, October 11, 2008

South Africa...

...a tourist spot. Not much more for Bharti!
“Sour grapes!” Just a few days back, the mobile behemoth had bid for a 51% stake in South Africa’s largest telecom player, MTN at $21.7/share, implying a fair price of $20.7 billion (and a premium of 20% higher to MTN’s shareholders). A $50 billion dream-deal (in-principle a Bharti-controlled structure as decided on May 26, 2008) was in the making. Two weeks later, the dream has literally become “sour grapes”! Surely, Bharti has done more than just read BCG’s July 2007 report that proved “how M&As valued beyond $1 million destroy twice as much value”! So, what’s there in the secret cellar that urged Bharti to back out?

The primary reason – lack of synergies. As a spokesperson from the company justifies, the collapse of the deal was because “this convoluted way of getting an indirect control of the combine would have been just a compromise for minority shareholders of Bharti. Moreover the synergies were not real!” It was also about the price here, which didn’t afterall appear ‘fair’! In order to seal the deal, the company had to procure ‘internal’ funds and leverage its balance sheet to a mind-boggling $40-45 billion – huge for a grossly overleveraged company (which has a debt/equity ratio of a dangerous 43.2!). Finally, with Singtel refusing to pay-up $10 billion, Bharti had no means to make procurement of funds a safe bait.

Therefore, the deal falling flat means Bharti still has ‘young’ international intentions left. As Santana Krishnan, Analyst, Spark Capital opines, “With the deal failing, its balance sheet looks good. But Bharti may soon roll out their operations in other emerging markets.” On news of the same, Bharti’s share price on BSE rose by 3.1% to touch Rs.890.95 (after a fall of 10% since the deal was announced); surely a good omen!

But there’s more to the war left. Post Bharti’s exit, speculations are rife that the $42 billion-worth RCom Ltd. is readying itself to make a $20 billion bid for the African elephant. Whoever gets MTN, one thing’s for sure – South Africa has a telecom CAGR of 22.5% and a high penetration of 70%; a sure inferior investment compared to India (CAGR of 60% & 22% penetration)?! Wonder what’s the logic in risking billions in sour grapes; or do they make better wine?!

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
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The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
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Friday, October 10, 2008

CONSERVATION EQUATIONS

Even as five animals are felled by poachers in a span of a few weeks, forest officials in Assam are positive that the Rhinoceros Unicornis population can be saved!
If there can be anything that can, even momentarily, diminish the anguish that can be caused by an image of a dying rhino, its horn hacked off, it is perhaps the reassuring words of a man called MC Malakar, the chief conservator of forests (wildlife), Assam. Hounded by the public and Press alike, he has decided to go on the offensive. “What makes you even think that the gene pool of rhinos in Assam may be unsafe?” he shoots back, even before one can finish a question on whether the rhino is safe, given the department’s efforts to take it to the 3,000 mark by the year 2020, as stated in the Indian Rhino Vision 2020 plan. The tirade continues: “At a meeting recently, the All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) demanded that I agree that we had failed in protecting the rhino. Why should I? Hasn’t the population of rhinos gone to over 2,000 at Kaziranga from a few dozens at the turn of the 19th century?”

According to an analogy that Malakar provides, “It is like trying to keep out all the mosquitoes using a mosquito net. No matter how hard you try, one or two will get in. It is simply not possible for us to put one guard behind every rhino there is in the state”. In terms of the threat to the Rhinoceros Unicornis, the “one or two”, incidentally, translates to a swarm of well-armed, well trained poachers who have brought down over 26 of these pachyderms over the past 17 months alone in Assam.

And that, as expected, has people worried. “There are no rhinos in the Manas and Laokhowa sanctuaries,” says Saumyadeep Dutta, who heads Nature’s Beacon, which first sounded the alarm regarding the killing of rhinos in Kaziranga in 2007. “Then, of course, there are some NGOs,” says Dutta “that have interests with the forest department and thus keep supporting them.”

Malakar, though, refutes such allegations. “We are reintroducing rhinos in Manas after making sure there is adequate public involvement so that there are no security issues,” says Malakar. “As you know, the entire rhino population there was wiped out during the Bodo agitation of the ‘80s and ‘90s.” As for the Indian Rhino Vision (IRV), things are so far going as planned, he says: four female rhinos from Kaziranga and two males from the Pobitora sanctuary near Guwahati (both of which are now overpopulated with rhinos) have been released at Manas over the past few months. “I don’t think there is a problem of inbreeding among rhinos; however, this should help save the gene pool at the two sanctuaries,” says Malakar. Once Manas gets back its population of rhinos (the target for the relocation exercise is 30 to 40 animals), the plan would be to target the Laokhowa sanctuary near Nagaon which too is considered an original rhino habitat which was emptied of its animals. And the officials are banking on the fact that they have a surplus in both Kaziranga and Pobitora: apart from the 2,000 at the world heritage site, Pobitora has more than 90 individuals in a space of 16 sq km. As for the principle, it’s simple: spread them out to their original habitats and make it more difficult for poachers to get to them. Despite the poaching, the officials insist, poachers haven’t been able to keep pace. One only hopes the vision is a success. For the rhino, and us.
For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

Read these article :-
ZEE BUSINESS BEST B SCHOOL SURVEY
B-schooled in India, Placed Abroad (Print Version)
IIPM in Financial times (Print Version)
IIPM makes business education truly global (Print Version)
The Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)
IIPM Campus

Top Articles on IIPM:-
'This is one of Big B's best performances'
IIPM to come up at Rajarhat
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The Hindu : Education Plus : Honour for IIPM
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