Friday, July 13, 2012

ams across Mekong make it a potential flash point for hostilities

International Rivers warns, “Dams would spell disaster for Mekong fisheries and ecology, a risk that millions of people in the region cannot afford to take.” There is a worry that more than 60 million people (who rely on the river & its tributaries for food, water & transportation), may be affected by these dams. Poverty-stricken Cambodia has been affected the most as it heavily depends on the river for food production.

Water sharing conflicts among countries are centuries old. But the Mekong dams’ disagreements are broadening with time. Lao’s Xayaburi dam, which is expecting to greatly affect Vietnam, could break the special bond between the two communist countries. Further development of hydropower dams across Mekong could enhance additional conflicts and even a war over water.



 

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Catch 22 for the US; A game of chess for Pakistan

The exchange of strong words between the two countries and then a failed visit to Islamabad by the US Secretary of State has turned the US-Pakistan relationship sour than ever. And that’s not good news for global diplomacy.

Relations between the United States of America and Pakistan have not been on a high lately. For quite sometime now, Washington has been fuming over Pakistan for providing safe haven and aiding extremist groups like the Haqqani militant network and the Afghan Taliban. However, the latest visit of US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton to Pakistan gives the impression that America now wants to mend its faltering relations with a vital and mercurial ally in the fight against militants, who are still wreaking havoc in Afghanistan, where the US has begun a drawdown of its forces.

The trouble is that the US also wants to pursue its strong stand against Pakistan on the issue of aiding militants. At least, it seemed so when Clinton, who stopped in Kabul on her way to Islamabad, with Afghan President Hamid Karzai by her side, warned that Pakistan could not let the current situation continue without paying a “big price”. She made it clear that the US will target all terrorists in their safe havens, including those taking refuge in Pakistan. And Pakistan must decide whether it wants to help or hinder the war on terror.

For that matter Clinton continued in the same vein in her joint press conference with Pakistan’s foreign minister Hina Rabbani. There she bluntly said that for too long terrorists have been able to operate from Pakistan’s soil and that “you (Pakistan) cannot keep snakes in your backyard which bite your neighbours”. While she could not have been more forthright publicly, Clinton was reportedly even more sharp in the closed door meetings with her Pakistani interlocutors. Her visit, say experts, was meant to douse the fire that had been ignited after harsh comments from both sides. But her words and actions indicated the US was in no mood to humour Pakistan.

Earlier, some strong words from the US Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta and the reaction of Pakistan Army Chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, especially with respect to the US issuing directives to Pakistan on handling the Haqqani network, had created an uncomfortable strain in the ties between the two countries. Washington’s accusation of how the ISI patronises and funds the Haqqani network, legitimises its anti-American and terrorist activities and how the Haqqani network is being used for patronising Al-Qaida’s presence on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border did not go down well with Pakistan. Interestingly, it is the same Haqqani network that India has been accusing of enjoying patronage from Pakistan. But the US was in a constant state of denial about the nexus till the blasts in London, Holland, Madrid and in the US embassies in Kabul, Iraq et al. US research operations after these incidents proved the clandestine activities of the ISI and its nexus with the Haqqani network. But faced with hard evidence, the US could no longer condone this unholy nexus.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

An Initiative of IIPMMalay Chaudhuri 
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Army in J&K has its pros and cons

Omar’s call asking for AFSPA’s revocation from parts of J&K appears prima facie tenable. Srinagar, Badgam, Samba and Jammu districts have been peaceful for years. And the army ceased counter-insurgency operations in these areas years ago. The home ministry’s latest report says that 69 police and military personnel, 47 civilians and 232 terrorists were killed last year in J&K. Even if murders unrelated to terrorism are added to this number, the state’s rate of fatalities is 3.5 per 100,000 people, which is significantly lower than the comparable murder rate in Arunachal (6.1), Jharkhand (5.5), Mizoram (4.8) or Chhattisgarh (4.2). However, the issues on the ground are more complex than what plain statistics let on. “Political stunts and comments on this complex issue have been most disastrous,” says Singh, adding, “from foreign aggressions, militant attacks to disaster relief, it is the uniformed soldier who has stood by in J&K at the peril of his own life.” For the Army and its troops stationed in J&K, AFSPA is an enabler and a facilitator for the armed forces. It is an operational exigency. “We are not trigger-happy people.Does the CM know the details of terrorist camps and the 5,000 insurgents just waiting to cross over into India?,” asks Singh.

In fact, it would be naive to condone the threat of terrorist infiltration from Pakistan and there is no reason to assume that it has changed its intentions over Kashmir. The threat from China and the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan cannot be ignored as well. Several Western media and security reports have predicted the presence of the Chinese Army in the Gilgit and Baltistan regions and POK in Pakistan. If true, this would spell disaster for the India’s security and strategic position in the long run and there could be more problems of militancy in Kashmir than India can grapple with. Many Western security think-tanks have even claimed that Pakistan has ceded Baltistan and Gilgit to China. “The need of the hour is to have total control and an iron grip over Kashmir by the central government,” says foreign affairs and political expert Suvrokamal Dutta. Calling for full powers under the AFSPA to the armed forces and security agencies, Dutta urges them to identify the militant leaders and politicians who are igniting and provoking the masses for violence. “These leaders are clearly directed, abetted and funded by their ISI bosses and Pakistan; as such, it’s important to expose and isolate them,” he says.





Tuesday, July 10, 2012

“Kiranas only cater to food retail”

B&E: With the Indian retail space developing rapidly, what are some of the changes you expect to see going forward?
AB:
In the coming years, staff in retail will be better trained, customer service will improve, retail formats will become larger and there will be more choices of retailers in several underserviced categories such as home improvement and value fashion.

B&E: Foreign direct investment in the fast-growing retail sector is being viewed from a positive as well as negative perspective with respect to job creation. What are your views on the same?
AB:
If FDI in multibrand retail is restricted to only cities with a one million plus population, around 4.6 million new jobs will be created. If this is extended across India, around 11 million jobs will be created. Inflation will also come down because of better efficiencies, lesser wastage and higher competition just like telecom.

B&E: Why should India open up the sector to FDI? Why not set up retail infrastructure from the country’s own resources?
AB:
Indian retailers don’t have the resources. Telecom developed much faster after FDI was allowed and this helped bring down telephone call charges by 99% in 16 years based on purchasing power of the rupee. The same scenario was repeated in the automobiles sector. For decades, we were forced to buy horrible cars like the Ambassador and the Premier Padmini. With FDI being allowed, the Indian consumer today has a choice of more than 80 types of cars from 17 brands, and also at a wide range of price points.

B&E: There is a fear that India would be swamped by multinationals that would kill local entrepreneurs, especially the small shops. Do you believe that FDI can affect kirana stores across India in this manner?
AB:
Kiranas only cater to food retail, which is just 30.3% of the total retail market in urban India. Modern retail can capture a maximum of 7.5% of the total food retail market in urban India, based on several factors. Thus, modern retail can displace a maximum of 20,000-odd kirana stores. On the other hand, modern food retail will help create new local entrepreneurs for providing various services to modern retailers – such as logistics, warehousing, delivery, security, housekeeping, parking management, staff uniform supply and laundry, POS materials, et al.



Monday, July 09, 2012

The ‘Lower’ house!

Acts of violence and protest, disregard of proceedings and lack of interest in participation have become shameful characteristics of our Members of Parliament. In that light, our Constitution needs to reconsider the immunity being given to our MPs and tighten the laws

The Parliament, in any democracy, is the very essence of the latent principles and policies of a nation. It not only represents the stature of its political system but is also a condensed reflection of the society at large. Contrarily, in India, the Parliament is witnessing several acts of pandemonium and violence and unfortunately, they have become more of a norm than an exception. Despite the inception of an Ethics Committee to study Parliamentary proceedings in 1997, which later came up with its list of suggestions detailing the ‘Rules of Procedure’ required to be incorporated in the proceedings, our Parliament and certain state legislatures keeps setting new standards in hours spent walking out and opposing anything that moves. Of course, part of it is what is accepted as essential for democracy to function – the opposition walking out to show their disagreement being one of them. But clearly, many other parts (populating the well of the house to ensure no work gets done, shouting, jostling, even violently attacking others members – as has happened in certain state legislatures) are clearly beyond even accepted standards of unparliamentary behaviour. What then should be the code of conduct that Parliamentarians in India should be forced to follow?

Many matured democracies have laid down and instituted clear and basic codes of conduct for their parliamentarians.

Many democracies across the globe have tagged the usage of derogatory words including liar, dumbo, coward, hypocrite, traitor, et al during house proceedings as offensive, and their usage was banned during the proceedings. Since then, many countries have laid down strict rules against usage of such and similar terminologies. Countries like Canada, US and UK consider usage of such words as evidence of contempt against the houses of government and have provisions for imposing fines and punishment (or both) on the accused. Any inappropriate behaviour or misconduct can invite legislative penalty under censure. To be precise, in the US, the term censure is defined thus, “A motion must not use language that reflects on a member’s conduct or character, or is discourteous, unnecessarily harsh, or not allowed in debate.” Specifically, article I, section 5 of the US Constitution states that every senator “shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members” and may “punish its Members for disorderly behaviour.” In Australia, under the contempt of Parliament rule (unparliamentary language), a fine of up to $5,000 and six months imprisonment can be imposed on individuals crossing the line. On the same lines, Hong Kong and UK consider contempt of the Legislative Council as a criminal offence. They may expel and can even prosecute the defaulters.

So what’s the formal code of conduct that exists for Indian Parliamentarians? Interestingly, India has no formal code of conduct regarding the behaviour of its MPs. A number of attempts have been made, committees have been constituted and recommendations gathered for installing a proper code of conduct; but no concrete steps in terms of converting these recommendations into legislations could be taken, primarily because of opposition from the MPs themselves.

Apart from using offensive language, another blot on the face of the Indian Parliament is the average attendance of MPs in the Lok Sabha. In the 2009 winter session, the average attendance of the MPs was 66%; with only 15 MPs securing full attendance and only 45 MPs having an attendance of more than 95%! There has been no apparent urgency among MPs to attend, as there is neither any stipulated minimum requirement of attendance in the Indian Parliament, nor does there exist any penalty for prolonged absenteeism. But then, even the United States has no such minimum specified attendance criteria for members of the house. Then again, in spite of having no minimum attendance criteria, the absenteeism ratio in US is much lower than India; pegged at 13% on an average, while in the 111th Congress, the figure was a mere 4%. Canada is better on these accounts. In Canada, there is a minimum requirement that MPs cannot miss more than 21 days in a session. In case they do, they have to shell out a daily fine of $120 for the misses. Recently, the Russian Parliament passed a law and imposed fines and penalties to punish absent lawmakers. In Germany, it is mandatory for members of the Bundestag to participate in their sessions. In Israel, a member of the Knesset is not allowed to miss a session without any valid reason while in Ghana, a member of parliament is asked to vacate his seat if found absent without permission.

Talking about the number of bills passed in the parliament, the picture there is quite obscure as well, though it doesn’t sound as surprising looking at the state of affairs discussed so far. There were, in total, 24 bills on the roster to be introduced in the last winter session of the Lok Sabha, out of which 17 were passed. But those were passed in the mere nine hours for which duration the session was possible. That was because of repeated disruption of both the houses by the opposition parties and the boisterous protests against the 2G spectrum scam. Other major disruptions in our Parliamentary history have included a 13 day protest by BJP in 1996 (when former telecom minister Sukh Ram’s residence was raided by CBI); disruption in the aftermath of the Ketan Parekh scam in 2001 and disruption with respect to the Bofors kickback case, which paralysed our Parliament for one and a half days. The estimated cost of running the Parliament per minute is Rs.40,000; which means that for every single day that the Parliament got stalled, the country lost a whopping amount of Rs.20 million directly. And one hasn’t even talked about the opportunity costs arising from the other bills not getting discussed.

Losses get multiplied exponentially if such costs are considered, as the introduction, debate and passing of bills could have improved the administration of our land. According to PRS Legislative Research, the incumbent government tried to introduce as many as 200 bills in the last seven sessions, but was able to get only 57 passed. In the last seven sessions, a humongous 35% of the business hours were lost due to disruptions. Lastly, the travesty is not complete without this startling fact that 17% of the bills were passed with less than five minutes of debate. Contrast this with the length of sessions that take place in developed countries, which are typically not less than 140-150 days per year.